The Republic of Azerbaijan in the “Global Risks Report 2026”
Dr. Hamid Shahanaghi
The “Global Risks Report 2026” published by the World Economic Forum portrays a world that has entered an “age of competition”; a world in which multilateralism is weakening and states are competing more aggressively than ever through economic, technological, and security instruments in order to expand their influence.
When we read this report from the perspective of Azerbaijan, it becomes clear that Baku stands at the very center of many of the developments highlighted in the report: geoeconomic wars, energy competition, crises over transportation corridors, regional tensions, and the redefinition of the balance of power in Eurasia.
In fact, the world described in the WEF report is precisely the world in which Azerbaijan has been rapidly consolidating its position in recent years.
The most important concept of the 2026 report is “Geoeconomic Confrontation.” This concept encompasses sanctions, trade wars, technology controls, energy competition, and the political use of economic instruments.
In such a world, Azerbaijan’s geographical location has become a strategic asset. Today, Baku stands at the center of the route connecting Central Asia to Europe; it is a key actor in the Middle Corridor, an energy exporter to Europe, and an important partner for Turkey, the European Union, and even Israel.
The WEF report warns that the world is moving toward intensified competition over supply chains and trade routes. For Azerbaijan, this process represents not only a threat but also a major geopolitical opportunity. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Europe’s efforts to reduce its dependence on Russia significantly increased the importance of the energy and transit routes of the South Caucasus. In this process, Baku succeeded in strengthening its position as one of Eurasia’s principal energy and transit hubs.
The 2026 report emphasizes that the world has entered a period in which “power competition” has replaced cooperation as the defining dynamic. In such an environment, the South Caucasus is no longer merely a peripheral region; it has become part of the global competition among Russia, Turkey, the Western world, China, and even Middle Eastern actors.
In recent years, Azerbaijan has sought to avoid total dependence on any single power bloc, maintain balanced relations with various actors, and use its geographical position to increase its bargaining power. This approach corresponds exactly to what the WEF report describes as a “competitive multipolar world.”
In a world where energy security has once again become a vital issue, Azerbaijan has gained renewed importance. The WEF report warns that geoeconomic rivalry, supply chain disruptions, and pressure on critical infrastructure will intensify in the coming years.
For Europe, Azerbaijani gas is no longer merely an energy source; it has become part of a broader strategy to reduce dependence on Russia. The Southern Gas Corridor, the TANAP and TAP pipelines, and the integration of the Caucasus energy network with Europe have all increased Baku’s weight in the new energy equation.
However, this geoeconomic dependence also brings risks, including pressure from great-power competition, security threats to energy infrastructure, and the transformation of the Caucasus into a theater of influence wars.
One of the most striking warnings of the 2026 report concerns “disinformation and media operations,” ranked as the world’s second most significant short-term risk. For Azerbaijan, this issue carries particular importance. Narratives surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, debates over the Zangezur Corridor, regional media rivalries, and digital propaganda wars have all become part of states’ national security concerns.
The WEF report stresses that technology and social media networks are deepening social polarization and public distrust. In the South Caucasus, this process could further intensify ethnic, political, and geopolitical tensions.
Another key finding of the 2026 report is the gradual weakening of the old international order and the emergence of new regional arrangements. This transformation is particularly visible in the South Caucasus. While Russia’s traditional influence in the region is being challenged, Türkiye, the European Union, China, and even Arab countries are expanding their presence.
Azerbaijan, meanwhile, seeks to become the central power of the Caucasus, control transit corridors, and consolidate its role as a “bridge between East and West.” However, the WEF report warns that countries located in geopolitically sensitive regions will face not only opportunities but also far greater risks in the new competitive order.
The 2026 report also points to rising risks of global recession, inflation, and economic instability. Azerbaijan’s economy remains heavily dependent on energy. Although Baku is attempting to expand transit transportation, logistics, technology, and regional investment, fluctuations in global energy markets may continue to affect the country’s economic stability.
At the same time, if the Middle Corridor projects and the integration of Central Asia with Europe continue to expand, Azerbaijan could evolve from a mere energy exporter into one of Eurasia’s major geoeconomic centers.
The “Global Risks Report 2026” demonstrates that the future world will be shaped more than ever by power competition, economic warfare, technology, energy, and transit routes. In this new world, Azerbaijan is no longer a peripheral country; it is becoming one of the key actors in the Eurasian equation.
Today, Baku stands at a point where it can emerge as a regional energy and transit hub, consolidate its geopolitical role, and benefit from the gaps between global powers. Yet this same position also exposes it to serious risks, including pressure from rival powers, regional instability, information warfare, and intensifying competition over the South Caucasus.
The world described in the WEF report is one in which “geography” has once again become destiny. And in such a world, Azerbaijan is no longer merely an oil-rich country; it is one of the most sensitive strategic nodes in the emerging Eurasian order.
