Dr. Hamid Shahanaghi
The outbreak of nationwide protests in Iran in January 2026, beyond being a social movement, constituted a concrete manifesto of the failure of the governance paradigm based on “strategic myopia.” In the crisis management literature, this concept refers to the cognitive gap between an organization’s established routines and the dynamic realities of its environment, which causes leaders to insist on obsolete strategies instead of adapting. In the events of January 2026, Ali Khamenei, with an excessive focus on short-term survival, proved incapable of understanding the structural collapse of the system and, by insisting on the model of naked repression and “leadership myopia,” destroyed the remaining legitimacy. This analysis examines this strategic error and its consequences.
Roots of the crisis: the trauma of the 2025 war and the erosion of deterrence
The ground for the social explosion of January 2026 must be sought in the military defeat of June 2025 (the 12-day war). This war not only destroyed the nuclear infrastructure in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, but also shattered the chain of command with the killing of senior commanders such as Hossein Salami (IRGC Commander) and Mohammad Bagheri (Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces). Leadership myopia at this stage manifested itself in the form of “strategic denial”; instead of accepting the reality of the loss of deterrence, Khamenei retreated into underground shelters and paralyzed the national decision-making process. This military defeat, with the destruction of billions of dollars of nuclear investments and the exposure of the ineffectiveness of the strategy of “defense at a distance” through proxy groups, sowed the seeds of despair even among loyalists of the system.
Economic collapse: the trigger of anger in the market and the streets
Strategic myopia in the economic sphere revealed itself in ignoring expert warnings that society had reached a “point of no return.” In late December 2025, when the rial reached the unprecedented rate of 1,432,000 against the US dollar, the initial sparks of protest were ignited not by political groups but by Tehran’s bazaar merchants. Misery indicators peaked in January 2026; food inflation jumped above 70 percent (especially in essential goods such as bread and meat), and the absolute poverty rate encompassed more than 60 percent of the population. Instead of structural reforms such as accepting FATF or engaging in serious negotiations, the regime leadership resorted to short-term and ineffective measures like printing money and forcing the resignation of the central bank governor, which only worsened the inflationary cycle and spread anger from the market to universities and deprived neighborhoods.
The repression order of January 9: the greenest light for naked violence
The turning point of Khamenei’s strategic error was his speech on January 9, 2026, in Qom. In this speech, by labeling protesters as “mercenaries of the enemy,” “harmful elements,” and “thugs,” he effectively abolished any distinction between peaceful protest and unrest. This approach, based on “learning myopia,” rested on the false assumption that the repression model of 2019 and 2022 was still effective. Immediately after this speech, the judiciary ordered the establishment of fast-track courts and the issuance of death sentences, and the Imam Ali security battalions were dispatched to neighborhoods with direct shoot-to-kill orders. This structural obstinacy caused the fear of death by starvation to surpass the fear of execution, and slogans quickly shifted toward radicalism and support for the overthrow of the regime.
Digital terrorism and engineering of massacre in silence
One of the key tools of Khamenei’s myopia was the nationwide shutdown of the international internet starting on January 8, 2026. The aim of this action was to prevent the organization of protesters and to conceal the scale of the killings, but in practice it led to the regime’s own “informational blindness.” With the internet cut, security institutions lost the ability to monitor protesters’ movements in cyberspace, and online protests turned into unpredictable physical rage on the streets. Moreover, the complete halt of banking transactions and small-scale trade intensified the economic crisis and joined the gray middle segment to the protesters. This digital isolation also provoked international actors such as Elon Musk to intervene through Starlink and violate the regime’s cyber sovereignty.
Leadership eclipse and power vacuum at the top of the pyramid
At the peak of the January 2026 crisis, the phenomenon of “leadership eclipse” became evident. Reports indicated that due to deteriorating physical condition and cognitive decline, Khamenei had lost the capacity to manage daily affairs. This vacuum transformed the political system into a set of competing “fiefdoms” consisting of IRGC economic cartels, intelligence barons, and clerical mafias. While the president (Pezeshkian) was effectively sidelined, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf (Speaker of Parliament) illegally assumed emergency military powers for several days. The absence of a “master key” to resolve factional disputes led to contradictory orders and intensified confusion within the repressive forces, which itself is one of the clearest indicators of institutional collapse.
Dimensions of the humanitarian catastrophe: massacre as a tool of survival
Leadership myopia crystallized in the belief that “mass killing” could restore stability. According to human rights organizations, the scale of repression in January 2026 was unprecedented; the Iran Human Rights Organization in Norway estimated the number of those killed at at least 3,428, and HRANA at 3,919. Some field reports from doctors even spoke of figures up to 16,500 killed in urban clashes, and it is estimated that more than 26,000 people were arrested. Horrifying reports emerged of execution-style shots being fired in hospitals and the use of chemical agents against protesters in cities such as Karaj and Ilam, indicating a shift of the regime from a repressive state to an organized criminal gang for short-term survival.
Personal confrontation with Trump: suicide in foreign policy
Khamenei’s myopia in foreign policy manifested itself in the personalization of tensions with Donald Trump. Instead of adopting flexible diplomacy during the internal crisis, he called Trump a “Pharaoh” and rejected any de-escalatory messages. This was while Trump, by warning about executions and declaring that “help is on the way,” had brought psychological pressure on the core of power to its peak. Khamenei’s miscalculation in relying on Russia and China was also exposed at this stage, as Moscow and Beijing, in the face of US and Israeli military threats against Iran, confined themselves to verbal support and refrained from any practical action to economically rescue the regime.
In the end: living in permanent crisis
The events of January 2026 showed that Khamenei’s strategic myopia has pushed Iran into the stage of “living in permanent crisis.” With the elimination of any political mediation and naked repression, the only remaining path for society is change through overthrow. The political system is now like “a patient in intensive care” that survives only through security shocks, while its legitimacy and economic capacity have completely collapsed. Obstinacy at the top of power and prioritizing physical survival over national welfare not only failed to restore stability, but has placed Iran on the brink of a structural collapse and possibly a final military confrontation, the end of which will not be an exit from the current impasse unless there are fundamental changes in the paradigm of power.
