Hüseyin Alpaslan & İsmail Cingöz
In recent years, the transformation in Eurasian geopolitics has brought the “Turan Road,” long discussed as a theoretical concept for the Turkic world, back to the center of the strategic agenda. This historical line, extending from Turkistan to Anatolia, signifies not only the idea of a cultural union but also a new model of geopolitical integration in the fields of trade, transportation, energy, and security.
In this context, the Zangezur Corridor stands out as one of the most critical nodal points of this integration. This line, which would provide a direct land connection between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan in the South Caucasus, also has the potential to complete the uninterrupted transportation chain between Turkey and Central Asia.
However, this project is not merely a transportation line. The opening of the Zangezur Corridor has the potential to yield strategic consequences that could affect the power balances in Eurasia. The particularly harsh stance adopted by Iran against the project demonstrates that the issue cannot be explained solely by border security or economic interests. Iran’s reaction is closely related to its historical identity policies, internal demographic balances, and regional power competition.
This study aims to analyze the strategic importance of the Iranian geography for the Turkic world by addressing the concept of the Turan Road within historical continuity. Concurrently, the potential geopolitical consequences that may arise if the Zangezur Corridor opens, and Iran’s stance in this process, will be evaluated from a multi-dimensional perspective.
The Historical Depth of the Turkic Presence in Iranian Geography
The Turkic presence in Iran is often mistakenly addressed within the framework of a “minority issue.” However, historical data show that the role of Turks in the Iranian geography extends far beyond a simple ethnic presence.
In the process starting from the 10th century with the Ghaznavids, many Turkic dynasties such as the Great Seljuk Empire, the Khwarazmshahs, the Kara Koyunlu, the Aq Qoyunlu, the Safavids, the Afsharids, and the Qajars determined the political and military structure of the Iranian geography. This situation reveals that the Iranian state tradition was significantly shaped by Turkic elements for nearly a thousand years.
Especially with the establishment of the Safavid state, Iran’s current political and sectarian structure was largely formed. During Safavid rule, Turkic elements constituted the military and administrative backbone of the state, and Turkish was used as the court and administrative language for a long period.
Even the famous 14th-century scholar Ibn Khaldun, in his works, drew attention to the Turkish influence in the Iranian geography and considered this region one of the important centers of Turkish political power.
Although official data regarding the ethnic distribution of Iran’s population today are not disclosed, statements made by former Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi indicated that approximately forty percent of Iran’s population is of Turkish origin. Considering the Qashqais, Turkmens, and other Turkic communities, especially the Azerbaijani Turks, it is assessed that this rate is even higher.
Therefore, the Turkic presence in Iran is not merely a demographic element but also one of the carriers of the historical state tradition.
The Modern Iranian State and Identity Politics
The identity policies of the modern Iranian state have changed significantly, especially since the beginning of the 20th century. The overthrow of the Qajar dynasty in 1925 and the seizure of power by Reza Shah Pahlavi marked the beginning of centralized nation-state building in Iran.
The modernization policies implemented during the Pahlavi era brought Persian identity to the forefront as the founding element of the state, while limiting the public visibility of other ethnic identities. Local languages, especially Turkish, were largely excluded from the fields of education and public administration.
Although the regime changed after the Iranian Islamic Revolution of 1979, the fundamental character of identity policies was largely preserved. The Iranian Constitution recognizes only religious minorities; communities such as Armenians, Jews, and Zoroastrians are granted certain representation rights. However, since ethnic identities are not officially recognized, groups such as Turks, Kurds, Arabs, and Baloch are excluded from this scope.
This situation leads to the cultural and linguistic demands of Turkic communities in Iran often being evaluated from a security perspective. Especially after the independence of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Iranian administration began to perceive Turkish identity as a potential geopolitical risk.
Social Tensions and Identity Demands in Iran
In recent years, Iran has faced serious economic and social problems. The economic pressures created by high inflation, unemployment, and international sanctions have led to widespread discontent in society.
Although protests initially emerged with economic demands, over time they began to include demands for identity and cultural rights. Demands for Turkish-language education, cultural rights, and recognition of local identity, particularly in the South Azerbaijan regions, have become increasingly visible.
The Iranian administration often evaluates these demands as separatist movements and tries to suppress them through security-oriented methods. However, this approach, instead of changing sociological realities, leads to the further strengthening of identity consciousness.
The Zangezur Corridor: The Key to New Eurasian Geopolitics
The Zangezur Corridor issue is not merely a part of the border dispute between Azerbaijan and Armenia. This corridor is also a project that could play a critical role in forming a new transportation and trade architecture in Eurasia.
The ceasefire agreement signed after the Second Karabakh War in 2020 envisaged the establishment of transportation links between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan. This situation brought the Zangezur Corridor onto the international agenda.
If the corridor opens, an uninterrupted road and railway connection could be established between Turkey and Azerbaijan, creating a new transportation network extending to Central Asia via this line. This could significantly accelerate economic, cultural, and strategic integration for the Turkic world.
Iran’s Stance Against the Zangezur Corridor
Behind Iran’s opposition to the Zangezur Corridor lie multiple strategic factors.
The first is the economic factor. Currently, transportation between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan is largely provided through Iran, and Iran earns significant revenue from these transit passages. The opening of the corridor could eliminate this economic advantage.
The second factor is geopolitical. Iran believes that the establishment of a direct land connection between Turkey and Azerbaijan would alter the power balances in the region.
The third, and perhaps most critical, factor is domestic politics. The emergence of a transportation line establishing a direct connection with the Turkic world could create psychological and political effects on Turkic communities in Iran. For this reason, the Tehran administration evaluates the project not merely as a transportation issue but as a matter of national security.
The Turan Road and the Belt-Road Competition
The Zangezur Corridor is also connected to large-scale transportation projects being undertaken globally. The Eurasian trade networks developed by China, particularly within the scope of the Belt and Road Initiative, are increasing the importance of the Middle Corridor.
The Middle Corridor line, supported by Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Central Asian states, could enable trade between Beijing and Europe to be conducted via a shorter and safer route. Therefore, the Zangezur Corridor holds strategic importance not only regionally but also on a global scale.
Iran, on the other hand, sees the risk of losing its central role in this new transportation architecture.
Strategic Scenarios
Three main scenarios stand out regarding the future of the Zangezur Corridor.
- First Scenario: The corridor opens within the framework of international agreements, and regional integration accelerates.
- Second Scenario: The project is delayed for a long time due to opposition from Iran and some regional actors.
- Third Scenario: Great power competition increases during the process of opening the corridor, and the South Caucasus turns into a new area of geopolitical tension.
Conclusion: The New Strategic Map of Eurasia
The concept of the Turan Road has often been evaluated as a romantic or ideological discourse. However, developments in recent years show that this concept is beginning to turn into a reality supported by concrete geopolitical projects.
The opening of the Zangezur Corridor has the potential to create an uninterrupted transportation line among the Turkic world. This development will have not only economic but also cultural and strategic consequences.
Iran’s harsh stance towards the project, on the other hand, is directly related to regional power balances, its internal demographic structure, and the competition in Eurasian geopolitics.
In the coming years, the Zangezur Corridor issue will continue to be one of the most critical topics not only for the South Caucasus but for the entirety of Eurasian geopolitics.
