FROM REGIONAL WAR TO GLOBAL CHAOS; THE FINAL SCENARIOS OF THE WAR
The military crisis that began on February 28, 2026, with the US-led “Operation Epic Fury” and Israel’s “Operation Roaring Lion,” transcends a limited conflict, representing the culmination of 47 years of confrontation between the Islamic Republic and the Western bloc. This war is a direct product of the failure of diplomatic efforts in 2025; the Muscat and Rome negotiations demonstrated that the gap between Washington’s insistence on the complete dismantlement of uranium enrichment and Tehran’s demand for the lifting of sanctions was unbridgeable. Developments on the ground indicate that the widespread protests in Iran during December 2025 and January 2026 transformed the White House’s calculations from an “arms control operation” into a “political engineering project”; as Trump, observing the depth of discontent, concluded that the regime was in its most precarious historical state.
STRATEGIC EROSION OF FEAR AND THE COLLAPSE OF MENTAL AUTHORITY
In the field of political science and the sociology of power, “fear” has always been examined as one of the oldest and most complex instruments of rule. From ancient city-states to the totalitarian regimes of the 20th century and contemporary authoritarian systems, the creation of fear has functioned not only as a means of physical repression but as a grand strategy for survival in the absence of democratic legitimacy.
NEW PROTESTS IN IRAN; A WEARY SOCIETY AND A CHANGING WORLD
It is not possible to view the recent protests in Iran merely as a repetition of previous waves of discontent. What is visible today in the streets, on social networks, and even in the meaningful silences of society is the product of the intersection of three simultaneous crises: chronic economic erosion, the collapse of political trust, and the feeling of being caught in the midst of geopolitical storms. This combination distinguishes the new protests from the 2022 (1401) uprising—not only in terms of demands, but also in terms of collective mood and the horizon of expectations.
