CONSEQUENCES OF IRAN’S WAR WITH THE US AND ISRAEL ON THE REPUBLIC OF AZERBAIJAN
The ongoing war between Iran on one side and the United States and Israel on the other is no longer just a limited military conflict; this war is rapidly redefining the geopolitical map of the Middle East and its surroundings. The Republic of Azerbaijan, a country located at the crossroads of the Caucasus, Russia, Iran, and the Turkic world, has been exposed to the contradictory and complex consequences of this crisis more than many other actors. Baku’s current position can be summarized in one sentence: “A potential winner standing on the front line of danger.”
The military and political developments of late February and March 2026 have exposed West Asia and the Caucasus to one of the greatest historical ruptures. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the consequences of this conflict on Baku across political, security, economic, and energy dimensions, and examines the grand strategies of Baku and Tehran until March 30, 2026, with a special focus on the factor of the 30-40 million Turks of South Azerbaijan.
THE WATCHFUL DRAGON; CHINA AND THE MILITARY CRISIS BETWEEN IRAN, THE UNITED STATES, AND ISRAEL
Military developments in the Middle East, initiated by an operation referred to as “Operation Epic Fury” carried out by the United States and Israeli forces against Iran’s nuclear and military infrastructure, have ushered the global geopolitical order into a new phase of instability. In this context, the People’s Republic of China, the world’s largest energy importer and Washington’s primary strategic rival finds itself in a complex and multidimensional position, oscillating between the necessity of safeguarding energy security, protecting its core interests in Taiwan, and attempting to redefine the international order within the framework of the “Global Security Initiative” (GSI). By the end of March 2026, Beijing’s strategy toward this war has evolved from a meaningful initial silence to an active yet non-interventionist diplomacy, with the ultimate aim of capitalizing on the erosion of U.S. power in the region and strengthening Tehran’s strategic dependence on Beijing in the long term.
STRATEGIC ANALYSIS OF CONFLICTS BETWEEN TURKS AND KURDS IN IRAN
The geopolitical crises that have swept the Iranian plateau in early 2026 (1404 in the Solar Hijri calendar) transcend a classic military confrontation between states, acting as a catalyst for the redefinition of identity and territorial boundaries. While extensive US airstrikes under the operation “Epic Fury” and Israeli attacks dubbed “Roar of the Lions” have pushed the Islamic Republic’s defense infrastructure and command structure to the brink of collapse, leading to the physical elimination of Ali Khamenei, the historical fault lines between the Kurdish and Turkish nations in northwestern Iran have become active on an unprecedented scale. This report aims to provide an in-depth, multi-faceted examination of the current state of governance amidst the war, a critique of the political statements of Kurdish parties, an analysis of territorial claims in West Azerbaijan, and an outline of the perspective for a post-Islamic Republic order.
THE BLOODY BALANCE SHEET AND THE COLLAPSE OF THE REGIONAL ORDER: A ANALYSIS OF THE STRATEGIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE MIDDLE EAST WAR
As the world watches the flames of fire in the Middle East, the geopolitical order that had dominated the region for decades has turned into a pile of ashes in less than 100 hours. The launch of the joint US-Israeli operation at dawn on February 28, 2026, was not just a conventional military confrontation, but the beginning of a fundamental transformation in the political and economic geography of the world, the dimensions of which have transcended the borders of the Iranian Plateau and extended to the financial markets of New York and the strategic ports of East Asia. This report, examining the various dimensions of this crisis with an expert perspective, delves into the collapse of Iran’s internal structures, the global energy crisis, Turkey’s precarious situation, and the shifting balance of power in the region.
THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE TURAN ROAD: THE ZANGEZUR CORRIDOR, IRAN, AND THE NEW STRATEGIC EQUATION OF THE TURKIC WORLD
In recent years, the transformation in Eurasian geopolitics has brought the “Turan Road,” long discussed as a theoretical concept for the Turkic world, back to the center of the strategic agenda. This historical line, extending from Turkistan to Anatolia, signifies not only the idea of a cultural union but also a new model of geopolitical integration in the fields of trade, transportation, energy, and security.
In this context, the Zangezur Corridor stands out as one of the most critical nodal points of this integration. This line, which would provide a direct land connection between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan in the South Caucasus, also has the potential to complete the uninterrupted transportation chain between Turkey and Central Asia.
AZERBAIJAN’S PROTEST PARADOX: STRATEGIC AND STRUCTURAL DYNAMICS OF SILENCE
Why has Iranian Azerbaijan shown a low presence in recent nationwide protest movements, or essentially preferred silence and tranquility? This question becomes even more pronounced given the region’s minimal participation in major socio-political events that occurred in 2009, 2017, 2019, 2022, and 2025-26. Although this past December, for two days, some cities in the region, such as Ardabil experienced similar mobilizations as seen in other parts of the country, the protests in Azerbaijan’s provinces and the number of martyrs remained significantly lower compared to other regions. This situation becomes even more complex when we know that Azerbaijan, like other peripheral regions of the country, suffers additional pain from the adverse consequences of centralism and the center’s unjust policies, alongside the usual oppressions.
A REASSESSMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF AZERBAIJAN’S PUBLIC DIPLOMACY STRUCTURE IN IRAN
The geopolitical developments in the South Caucasus following the Second Karabakh War in 2020 and the new regional configurations between 2024 and 2026 have established the Republic of Azerbaijan as a pivotal actor in the regional security system. However, despite Baku’s military and diplomatic advancements, its public diplomacy when engaging with non-Azerbaijani segments of Iranian society has consistently faced fundamental challenges. This policy paper, with a strategic and impartial perspective, analyzes the roots of Baku’s failure to penetrate various layers of Iranian society and, by identifying latent potentials, outlines a roadmap for transitioning from confrontation to positive influence. Analyses indicate that despite possessing soft power assets such as a secular development model, modern urban infrastructure, and shared intellectual heritage, Baku has been unable to become an attractive soft power for the general Iranian public due to its reliance on ethno-centric approaches.
DONALD TRUMP’S NARCISSISM AND STRATEGY TOWARDS THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN
Analyzing Donald Trump’s behavioral patterns and discourse towards the Islamic Republic of Iran requires a deep exploration of the underlying layers of his personality and its connection to his lessons learned in the business world, in order to answer whether his actions are the product of conscious strategic planning or merely stemming from psychological impulses. The reality is that in Trump’s intellectual framework, the distinction between personality and strategy has practically disappeared; in other words, he employs his inherent characteristics as a tool to advance political goals. This approach, known in political literature as the “madman theory,” rests on the assumption that if a leader can convince his enemies that he is unpredictable, reckless, and even willing to take extreme actions, the opposing side will concede more advantages for fear of uncontrollable consequences. By leveraging this theory, Trump creates a strategic ambiguity around his decisions, keeping both enemies and even allies in a state of perpetual uncertainty. However, psychological analysts believe this behavior is not merely a strategic mask but is rooted in “Narcissistic Personality Disorder” (NPD), characterized by an excessive need for admiration, extreme sensitivity to criticism, and a tendency to divide the world into absolute poles of friend and enemy. These personality traits have led him to define Iran within a stereotypical and simplistic framework as the “bad actor” and “absolute threat,” an approach that sacrifices geopolitical complexities for simple, black-and-white answers.
STRATEGIC AND CONTENT ANALYSIS OF THE “TBA TV” MEDIA NETWORK
This analytical report has been prepared and compiled by the South Azerbaijan Center for Strategic Studies (SACSS) with the aim of examining diaspora media and their impact on regional geopolitical equations.
The emergence and continued activity of diaspora media on digital platforms, especially in regions marked by geopolitical and ethnic tensions is a phenomenon that requires in-depth analysis from the perspectives of communication sciences and security studies. The TBA TV network, operating on YouTube under the handles @TBATV and @TBATVaz, represents a prominent example of media that define their mission beyond mere information dissemination and function as active agents in redefining national identity and steering political movements. By focusing on Azerbaijanis worldwide, and particularly on the issue of South Azerbaijan, this network seeks to build a bridge between domestic demands and international pressures through the expertise of diaspora elites. This report provides a comprehensive examination of the channel’s structural, content-based, theoretical, and user-interaction dimensions in order to clarify its role in representing regional crises and influencing public opinion.
PEZESHKIAN IN THE BALANCE OF THE GORBACHEV MODEL AND THE STRUCTURAL ENTROPY OF THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC
Political transformation in ideological authoritarian systems tends to crystallize at moments when economic crisis and social blockage converge, pushing the rift between the ruling structure and society to a breaking point. Under such conditions, the emergence of figures who promise reform from within raises fundamental questions about whether structural change is possible without regime collapse. Mikhail Gorbachev, the last leader of the Soviet Union, remains the quintessential symbol of an attempted systemic renewal that ultimately resulted in the dissolution of the very system it sought to save.
