ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC STRUCTURAL PARALYSIS AND THE ACTIVATION OF PERIPHERAL FAULT LINES
Developments in 2026 point to an unprecedented convergence of accumulated crises in Iran. This situation has not only subjected the country’s monetary and fiscal system, but also its territorial integrity and the institutional legitimacy of governance, to an ontological challenge. The current condition goes beyond a cyclical fluctuation; it reflects a state of “polycrisis” in which macroeconomic indicators intersect with identity tensions in peripheral regions and push the state’s governing capacity to the point of collapse. This report examines, through a dialectical approach, the two main driving forces behind this breakdown: “economic structural paralysis” resulting from the institutionalization of parallel systems, and “ethnic fault lines” triggered by decades of systematic discrimination, and analyzes the scenarios facing this political entity.
